Anticipating the Next Consumer Shift: How Retailers Can Stay Relevant in a Volatile World

Consumer behaviour used to change in cycles. Today, there are changes in pulses.

In every major retail market, from India and Southeast Asia to North America and Europe, shoppers are behaving in ways that defy old playbooks. They are spending more consciously, switching brands more seamlessly, and expecting more value from every rupee or dollar they spend. Meanwhile, retailers are navigating an unprecedented mix of global complexities: inflation, tariffs, geopolitical instability, supply chain fluctuations, and the rapid mainstreaming of AI.

In this environment, the question is no longer how much consumers will spend – but how quickly their expectations will shift. Retailers who anticipate these shifts will be well-positioned to thrive. Those who don’t will chase trends instead of shaping them.

The World Has Become a Retail Rollercoaster

The past five years have reshaped retail psychology more than the previous fifteen combined.

• A global pandemic fractured supply chains.
• Inflation surged across continents, pushing households to scrutinise every purchase.
• Tariffs and geopolitical tensions raised sourcing costs for everything from electronics to apparel.
• Digital transformation accelerated, pulling millions of consumers online almost overnight.

In India, these disruptions collided with local phenomena:

UPI revolutionised payments, quick-commerce shrank delivery expectations, GST changed pricing structures, and Tier-2/Tier-3 consumers emerged as major online buyers.

Globally or locally, one truth now holds: volatility is not a phase – it is the operating system of modern retail.

Yet Consumer Behaviour Follows Predictable Patterns

While the triggers may differ – inflation in one market, job insecurity in another, and tariff pressures elsewhere – the consumer response is surprisingly consistent worldwide.

1. A universal pull toward value and control

Consumers are trying to stretch their budgets:

• Trading down within categories
• Moving to private labels (Reliance’s Smart Choice or Target’s Up&Up)
• Switching between premium and discount retailers with little hesitation
• Delaying non-essential or discretionary purchases

This is happening in Mumbai and Munich, as well as in Boston and Bengaluru.

2. Credit and ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ become everyday tools

Consumers increasingly finance lifestyle expenses, not just big-ticket items.

• India: Simpl, ZestMoney, LazyPay
• US & Europe: Klarna, Afterpay, Affirm

But with household debt rising globally, this behaviour carries long-term risk.

3. Trading down is no longer a low-income behaviour

One of the most striking shifts is the democratisation of value shopping.

Affluent households in India are choosing DMart for essentials.

Higher-income consumers in the West are increasingly shopping at Aldi, Costco, and other discount chains.

The new consumer philosophy: premium when it matters, value when it doesn’t.

The New Holiday Shopper: A Worldwide Pattern

No matter which festival anchors the season – Diwali, Christmas, Chinese New Year, Eid, Thanksgiving – global shoppers now approach holidays with a similar mindset.

They will spend, but with intent.

Budgets are rising modestly, but expectations have rationalised. Consumers are looking for reasonable deals, not pandemic-era 50% off fire sales.

They mix channels and payments fluidly

A single shopper may use:

• UPI for small-ticket buys
• Credit cards for larger ones
• BNPL for lifestyle purchases
• Marketplace apps for discovery
• Quick-commerce for last-minute gifting

AI is reshaping discovery – but personalisation still matters

Nearly half of shoppers now use AI to explore products or gifting ideas.

However, the rest avoid AI because it feels impersonal – a reminder that technology cannot replace emotional resonance.

Amazon dominates globally, but social commerce is exploding

In India, platforms such as Meesho, Ajio, Instagram Shops, and Myntra are shaping the discovery experience.

In the US and UK, TikTok Shop is altering impulse buying.

Retailers need to serve every channel where consumers choose to browse, research, or purchase.

What Retailers Must Do – Immediately and Beyond 2025

1. Shift from discounting to value communication

Discount expectations have normalised.

What consumers now want is clarity, credibility, and fairness.

Retailers should highlight:

• Product longevity
• Quality
• Transparency in pricing
• Versatile use-cases

2. Make promotional strategies sharper, not louder

Rather than blanket discounts:

• Create curated bundles
• Reward loyal customers
• Offer early-access or last-minute specials
• Protect margins on high-value or flagship SKUs

Consumers value precision over aggression.

3. Rationalise product assortments

Retailers worldwide are discovering that having more SKUs does not necessarily translate to increased sales.

Tariff pressures and high fulfilment costs make curation essential:

• Keep hero SKUs stable
• Cut long-tail items
• Optimise inventory around profitable categories

4. Build AI into the core of customer engagement

AI is not a gimmick. It is fast becoming the first touchpoint in discovery.

Retailers must invest in:

• AI-driven recommendation engines
• Hyper-personalised marketing
• Conversational shopping assistants
• Automated support for faster resolution

Ignoring AI is equivalent to ignoring the consumer.

5. Diversify how you reach the consumer

The modern shopper is multi-channel by default.

Winning brands are experimenting with:

• Influencer-led launches
• Direct-to-consumer micro-drops
• Marketplace collaborations
• Quick-commerce tie-ups (especially for festive seasons)
• Experiential retail formats

Increasingly, consumers do not discover products through traditional ads – they find out about them through people, algorithms, and moments.

The New Retail Imperative: Relevance is Earned Daily

In a world where behaviour shifts quarterly and expectations shift monthly, retailers can no longer assume that yesterday’s strategy will deliver tomorrow’s results.

The real question leaders must ask is:

“Why should the consumer choose us today – and what will make them choose us again tomorrow?”

Relevance is no longer a long-term strategy.

It is a daily commitment.

Retailers who embrace anticipation, build agility into their systems, and create genuine value will not only survive this era of volatility – they will lead it.